Orange Hangover

It’s amazing how little coverage of Ukraine there has been in the international media in the past few months (with the exception of the ever-dependable Financial Times). After the telegenic euphoria of the December 2004 Orange Revolution had passed, attention focused elsewhere. In TV-land, Ukraine was a simple story with a happy ending; democracy won and the ex-communists were sent packing. Since then, anyone who’s been paying a little attention knows the ‘morning after’ brought a long hangover. President Viktor Yuschenko’s government internally combusted as his Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko walked out. Economic growth stagnated and corruption ran rampant. And in the depths of last winter, a piqued Russia switched off the gas. 

This spring, a parliamentary election created a three-way stalemate that lasted for months. The pro-Russian Party of the Regions of Ukraine made a convincing comeback (for eastern Ukrainians, it never went away). It was a thumb of the nose to Westerners, including myself, who’d simply assumed that a successful democratic outcome meant victory for the pro-Western parties. For a time early this summer, Ukraine teetered on the edge of a profound split, perhaps even civil war. Sensibly, if belatedly, Yuschenko put US pressure to the side and entered a coalition with his arch enemy, the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich.

Ukraine’s immediate challenge is to hold itself together politically to govern in the interests of its western and eastern parts, and to encourage more even economic development outside of the major cities. Good governance and economic development aren’t helped by rising energy costs. Ukraine is finally begining to pay Russia something near market prices for gas, a move that may cut oligarchs in both countries out of the deal. Lurking in the background of most of Ukraine’s challenges are corruption and organised crime. The ‘oligarchs’ drive and are driven by the explosive economic growth of post-communist privatisation, but their activities concentrate wealth in the hands of a few  at the cost of wider economic development.  And all these issues play out in the context of Ukraine’s constant renegotiation of its position itself somewhere between Europe and Russia. It’s not going to be an easy ride. 

It’s the price of uneasy peace that few people outside the country are fully aware of the ‘near misses’, or appreciate the implications of a war avoided.  (Avoiding civil breakdown is very un-news worthy - ask NATO about Kosovo or the OSCE about Russian Latvians.)  Anatol Lieven, writing in July (subscription to FT.com required), suggested that US silence about Ukraine’s new government “marks a response to ideological and geopolitical embarrassment of which the old Soviet media might have been proud.”  The election result was an uncomfortable reminder that democracy doesn’t always produce superficially desirable results, or clean-cut happy endings. 

Today, Ukraine is in a period of what the French call ‘co-habitation’. The President is of one party, the Prime Minister another. The idealism of the Orange Revolution has given way to a weary acceptance that Ukraine must come to some accommodation of its European and Russian aspects, and must plot its own course through the minefield of other countries’ power games.  It’s a difficult moment, and you can sense the exhaustion of many Ukrainians who just want to get on with their lives.

Comments

[blackminorca]

Good Luck in your Blogging and Travels!

It will be interesting to see how the Russophiles behave as "economic" incentives from the Kremlin are certain to disappear.

Oil has dropped 20% in the past few weeks and this means a drop of 60% in profits for Russia's cash cow.

[Maynard Handley]

"democracy won"

Why do you find it necessary to repeat GWB's talking points? Political scientists will tell you that, while democracy is a slippery concept with different meanings to different people, the single most useless meaning is "one round of elections in the very recent past".
Of course this is the preferred meaning for a twit like any modern Republican, but can't academics and academic hanger's-on be a little more careful with their language?

[abb1]

Democracy didn't win; one group of gangsters won against another, as usual.

[John Quiggin]

As you say, Maria, civil war avoided isn't that newsworthy. Maybe over-optimistically, I see the emergence of 'co-habitation' as a step towards politics as normal (in deference to maynard h, I'll avoid the term "democracy").

[Maria]

Maynard, I think it's pretty clear ("In TV land") that I'm paraphrasing when I say 'democracy won'. Readers of academic hangers on should exercise a little care and attention too...

First time I've been accused of repeating GWB talking points!

[Nick L]

Actually, for better or worse, I think 'competitively fought elections' is pretty much the definition of democracy political scientists use (google for 'interview Przeworski', the link is too long). This is often critiscised as being a definition of plurarchy, not democracy (which neccessarily involves public participation etc etc). In fact the domination of the notion of plurarchy over democracy is held to reflect the withered state of democracy in the US, where two sets of elites slug it out for the spoils.

[gracchi]

Great to read a good article about the Ukraine. I think you miss one media outlet that does report from there- the Economist. I think one of the good things about the Ukraine is as other commentators have said that in a way this period of cohabitation has happened- that the differences between East and West are being worked out over the cabinet table whether democratic or not.

[3pointshooter]

I was in Ukraine in late 2004 as an election observer. It was pretty inspiring to be in the Maidan, about 20 feet from Yuschenko up on stage delivering his victory speech in front of 1/4 million people, and the positive vibe in Kiev was electric. But one of my team members presciently pointed out: "what if this guy shits the bed too?". Well, it looks like he has.

PS. As far as democracy goes, the millions spent by the CIA during that election got their chosen man elected.

[Daragh McDowell]

Hey Maria, I know this is slightly off topic, but had no idea you were heading to Kiev. I'm just a couple of miles up the road (in Russian/FSU terms) in Voronezh, in the black earth region of Russia. Should have sent me an e-mail before hand! I could have eagerly informed you of the delights of Salo, Ukrainian bread, and eating absolutely everything with Smetano. Hope its a good trip, and drop me a line when you get home. There's plenty of Ukrainian's on my course who do nothing but natter on about Orange Politics, and I'd like to have an idea what they're talking about someday...

[Maria]

Hi Daragh,

sorry! should have known you'd be interested. Keep reading here over the next week or two, and we should have plenty of pieces up to give an imperfect but very up to date snapshot of Ukraine.

m